Climate change and migration

Part I. Internal displacement due to conflict and disasters

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) compiles data on two types of internal displacement: new displacements during a calendar year, and the total stock of internally displaced persons (IDPs) at the end of the calendar year. This statistical information is categorized by two broad displacement causes: (a) disasters and (b) conflict and violence.

At an estimated 62.5 million, the total global stock of people internally displaced (IDPs) by conflict and violence in 65 countries and territories as of the end of 2022 was the highest on record since IDMC began monitoring in 1998. The global total number of persons displaced (IDPs) by disasters was around 8.7 million persons across 88 countries and territories.

In calendar year 2022, there had been a total of 60.9 million internal displacements, 60 per cent more than in 2021 and the highest figure on record. Of these displacements, 53 per cent (32.6 million) were triggered by disasters and 47 per cent (28.3 million) were caused by conflict and violence.

In 2022, Ukraine (over 16 million) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4 million) topped the list with the highest numbers of displacements caused by conflict and violence, considerably influencing global numbers as a result. They were followed by Ethiopia (2 million), Myanmar (1 million) and Somalia (621,000). Pakistan experienced the highest absolute numbers of disaster displacements in 2022 (approximately 8.2 million).

As shown in Figure 19, annual disaster displacements outnumbered displacements associated with conflict and violence. IDMC notes, however, that a significant portion of the global total of displacements by disasters is usually associated with short-term evacuations in a relatively safe and orderly manner.

Part II. Pakistan’s floods

Major disasters are not a new phenomenon in Pakistan. In 2010, floods triggered 11 million displacements, prompting the government to establish the National Disaster Management Authority. Significant progress has been made since in terms of risk reduction and response, but disasters have continued to trigger significant displacement. Around 16.4 million movements were reported over the last decade. Put in perspective, the 2022 floods triggered nearly half of that figure in a matter of weeks. This outlier event has led experts to suggest that climate change played a role in its scale and severity.

More than 1 million people remained displaced as of December, demonstrating the challenges that IDPs still face in finding solutions following a disaster of this magnitude. The government recognises the importance of improving its responses and rebuilding communities that are more resilient to future shocks. This will be much needed given that Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. Scientists suggest that the probability of floods and heatwaves continuing to occur is high, and that they are likely to increase in intensity and frequency.

• Excerpt from IDMC, 2023.