Migration and Development

Predictive indicators of migration and displacement

Examining the overall quality of life by country, as well as across a range of key indexes and key migration and displacement indicators, highlights the reality that some countries face far greater contextual challenges and face a higher risk of (further) migration and displacement. When combined these sets of data can act as predictive indicators, assisting decision-makers to better anticipate some of the key migration challenges and opportunities ahead.

Global index data and rankings often reflect systemic issues that encompass decades, if not hundreds of years, of accumulated histories. The Henley Passport Index, for example, is a global ranking of countries according to the relative entry freedom of their citizens, which reveals that an individual’s ability to enter a country is in many respects determined by nationality. Visa access also broadly reflects a country’s status and relations within the international community and indicates how stable, safe and prosperous it is in relation to other countries.

Nationals from countries with very high levels of human development can travel visa-free to around 85 per cent of all other countries worldwide. These countries are also significant and preferred destination countries. However, the visa restrictions in place for countries with low levels of human development indicate that regular migration pathways are problematic for citizens. Irregular pathways are likely to be the most realistic (if not the only) option open to potential migrants from these countries.

When these index and migration data are visually represented in a global tile map, we can see broad regional aspects highlighted in stark terms. The more intense the green, the greater the alignment of positive index rankings and lower levels of displacement - see Europe, for example. On the other hand, the more intense pink in Africa and Asia show that lower index rankings and higher levels of displacement are strongly align. It is within these regions that we are likely to find countries that may require greater attention and focus, including operational, programmatic and policy support.

Visit the World Migration Report 2024 Interactive website, and scroll to the interactive graphs in the section on “Predictive indicators.

“In order to see each country regardless of their geographic size, we have turned them all into tiles; each tile with five bands, one per indicator (Human Development Index; Global Peace Index; Fragile States Index; INFORM Risk Index; Henley Passport Index). Each band is coloured based on the country’s position in that indicator, as shown in the screen shot below.

And the tiles are rearranged to resemble a world map, as shown in the screenshot below.

You can also explore the data and countries in the table, with additional context on migrants, refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced persons, as shown in the cropped screenshot below.

Don’t forget to visit the interactive World Migration Report 2024 to explore further.